News.LIVE journalists visited the Ukraine Rebuilding Alliance to find out how the country can adapt to new geopolitical challenges and remain resilient in the face of uncertainty.
The US presidential election traditionally influences global politics, but for Ukraine, the significance of this influence is particularly critical. How will US support change under a Donald Trump presidency? Will the Ukrainian economy be able to survive without international assistance? And what steps should be taken to ensure development in 2025?
The journalists talked about this with Yuriy Maslov, Chairman of Ukraine Rebuilding Alliance, Doctor of Political Science.
– How can Donald Trump’s presidency affect Ukraine’s economy?
– I have very optimistic expectations of the Republican coming to power in the United States. I am inspired by the fact that Trump has already mentioned peace in Ukraine 33 times. I am inspired by the fact that the American president has made this one of the main priorities of his foreign policy. I very much hope that, despite the internal political struggle, opposition and elections scheduled in two years to renew part of the Congress and the Senate, he will be forced to keep his election promises and do everything possible to ensure that our country signs a just peace. I think the most important thing today is the intentions and aspirations, as well as the fact that Ukraine remains in the focus of the US foreign policy, with an emphasis on peace. Everything else is technical details. It seems to me that it is impossible to achieve peace in 24 hours. Well, except in some fantastic situation. But I don’t see such a prospect – I see a long, hard diplomatic work, in which our country has to defend its positions gained during the war.
– The future Trump administration is announcing a reduction in aid to Ukraine. Will our country be able to survive without this money?
– It’s really hard to predict. The American political system is structured in such a way that the current force, which almost completely controls the Congress, the Senate, the executive branch, and the Supreme Court, sees the issue of supporting Ukraine somewhat differently than previous representatives of the Democratic Party. I think that globally, both of them will fight for a strong America that dominates the world, but the mechanisms for doing so may be different. And, again, I believe that today all the people of our country expect a just peace as soon as possible. This is evidenced by all independent opinion polls that are openly published in our country. In this context, the aspirations of Ukrainians and the declarations of the American president completely coincide with regard to a just peace that should be achieved as soon as possible.
– How will these decisions of the US leadership affect the social sector of Ukraine?
– Last year and this year, we planned to cover the budget deficit, which is approximately $40 billion, with foreign aid. If the volume of foreign aid decreases, it means that Ukraine will either have to find domestic sources of revenue (which may include raising taxes) or reduce spending. This will also apply to social payments. This is the responsibility of the political force that will be in power in 2025. If the Americans refuse to help us, we will have no choice but to cut our spending. Europe is also in a state of reboot, so we should not rely on it. New elections are scheduled for 23 February in Germany. And a serious political crisis is escalating in France. So, in any case, Europe is changing. It is also a kind of dynamic political mechanism. That is why it is always important to understand that the key to the survival of any country is the awareness of its subjectivity and personal responsibility for its actions. In simple terms, if you have UAH 500 in your wallet, you cannot spend UAH 2,500.
– Will increasing taxes for business help our economy or vice versa?
– In my opinion, raising taxes is an absolutely wrong policy for our country. Only through tax liberalisation can the economy grow. Today, there is a great example of the United Arab Emirates, in particular Dubai. There is also the example of Montenegro, which is a fairly transparent country that attracts businessmen from all over the world. I think that Ukraine should choose this path, not the path of endless tax increases. And with the current level of taxes, we will see more and more businesses closing down and simply going into the shadows. And no one will be able to control this. This is currently a very realistic scenario. In fact, individual entrepreneurs were the only liberal niche that allowed small and medium-sized businesses to operate. Now, there is virtually no real Ukrainian business left. We have no metal exports, no gas production, no mineral fertiliser exports. In principle, we have only the agricultural sector left. And small and medium-sized businesses are the second group. In fact, with this tax policy, we are nullifying people’s desire to live and develop in this country.
– How long will we have enough money without external funding?
– The Minister of Finance said that we will have enough internal resources for six months. And I think we will definitely have enough for this time. Provided that we are going to peace. But it is also possible that the volume of aid will decrease, and we will not have time to sign the peace. And this must also be taken into account. And after that, we need to see what conditions we will find ourselves in. I think that peace will be signed and our country will prosper. It will be great and powerful. And then all 7.7 million Ukrainian refugees should return home. This is the most important issue now.
– What steps should be taken to boost Ukraine’s economy in 2025?
– Today’s losses due to Ukrainians going abroad and combat losses at the front are much more traumatic for our country per capita than the losses of the Soviet Union during World War II. Therefore, people outside of Ukraine are a huge reserve for growth, because without people it is impossible to develop the economy. The biggest challenge, in my opinion, for the next year is the issue that politicians are already discussing and even creating formal ministries to engage these people in the life of the country. And this discussion is very relevant today. The main challenge is to make young people who have already been abroad believe in the need to return. And this is the most important task for the political force that will be in power in Ukraine in 2025. At the beginning of the year, it is extremely difficult to predict the economic situation in Ukraine, as it depends on many variables, including a full-scale war. However, our country shows an incredible example of resilience: businesses continue to operate despite constant threats and dangers. This proves that Ukrainians are able to adapt to the most difficult conditions, and it is important for our society not to lose this determination and resilience in the future.
Text: Anastasia Rvachova, News.LIVE
